The Global Warming Zone, the new number: The postmortem Right and Wrong

The coronavirus crisis, such as it was, is over.

People are no longer dying at a rate higher than any normal season. This is all cause deaths, meaning, hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed, meaning, kung flu isn’t killing people at a rate that would skew models higher than normal.

Not only that, if cases are rising but deaths aren’t this is a good thing, as it hastens herd immunity.

It’s finished. Kaput. Thus, the numbers we have are the numbers we should be using to judge how bad this crisis got.

Final result: Around 120,000 Americans officially reported as dead.

All right kids, it’s time for a new edition of everyone’s favorite game: Right and wrong!

We’re gonna look back at what I’ve said about things so far and see how my track record holds up. Get ready!

Wrong: Didn’t think the metro area would get hit as hard as it did.

This one I am including in all honesty, as I never gave a numbered prediction. But, it is true that I didn’t expect it to hit THAT hard.

Right: Coronavirus is extremely localized in terms of outbreak, hitting certain areas extremely hard and leaving everywhere else mostly alone.

My county never got hit in any meaningful way. There was a jump in deaths due to a nursing home, but outside of that we were mostly in the clear. This is true of several counties in NJ as well as the vast majority of the country.

Right: As soon as the weather warmed up, deaths would drop like a rock.

This is exactly what happened.

Wrong, soft prediction: Deaths would cap out around 50,000.

This was my “soft prediction”; I said this was where I suspected we’d top out.

I suspect right, but can’t prove yet, hard prediction: Deaths in America won’t hit 100,000.

If Stephen Crowder’s estimate that we’ve overcounted by about 25% is correct, we capped at 90,000 at the point all cause deaths dropped to normal seasonal levels.

Right: Fauci’s model was completely wrong:

Fauci originally gave the low number in America at 100,000. Normally someone would say that he MIGHT be right, given what we know at least. Except it doesn’t tell the full story; he also changed the model to a 65,000 low number and an 85,000 low number before getting back into the 100s. Models don’t work like that; see Dr. Briggs. This means his model is wrong.

Not to mention that – unless I’m misunderstanding it, and so far nobody has told me how I could be – he was counting deaths differently when he made the model then the CDC counted them, making the model’s prediction even more badly skewed.

And finally, if it really is true we’re below 100,000 dead, then even if we cop to his 100,000 dead prediction he didn’t reach it.

Right: Kung flu did not hit as hard as the 57′ or 68′ flus, adjusted for population.

Is it due to lockdowns? Well we have no evidence of this, yet plenty of evidence they did a lot of harm. Draw your own conclusions until the really hard numbers become available.

Right: Politicians tried to take credit for the end of the crisis. See: Cuomo smugly calling out the Southern governors for…not killing nearly as many people as he did. Sure, let’s put your track record under a microscope and compare. You may not like how things shake out.

So in terms of my major predictions, I got one wrong and one sort of wrong. Pretty good, I think.

Let’s go with new predictions!

  1. There will be a second wave, but of cases, not of deaths
    .
  2. The lockdown/open up/lockdown dance will continue until January, when the vaccine is rushed out
    .
  3. The baseball season and football seasons will shut down within a couple of weeks of opening up. This will be due to a few players testing positive after getting mild colds.
    .
  4. The vaccine will be mandatory, not by law, but by the vast majority of jobs. School jobs particularly.
    .
  5. Schools will open up but close within a month, until the vaccine is rushed out.

There you go. Let’s see how right I am. Unlike the previous predictions – outside of prediction 1, which would be fairly neutral news – I hope I’m wrong.

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4 Responses to The Global Warming Zone, the new number: The postmortem Right and Wrong

  1. GRA says:

    I’m in education, so most likely personnel will now have to get tested yearly until a C19 vaccine is birthed alongside our TB test. Thank you China.

  2. I too will work a school job in the Fall (just got it in fact), so this will affect me.

    Don’t worry. I suspect it will be rushed out by January. Since the whole thing will have blown over by then anyway it’ll “work”.

  3. Rudolph Harrier says:

    I’m pretty wary of getting the vaccine. There’s always potential complications with any disease, particularly ones for new diseases. And this one is definitely getting rushed, pushing the chance for complications higher. On the flip side, by the time it comes up we’ll almost certainly have herd immunity so the benefit of the vaccine will be negligible in containing the disease and I’m not old enough for the disease to be a big risk personally.

    The thing working in my favor is that the administration is too incompetent at its job to actually keep track of who gets vaccinated. There are flu vaccines provided (which I do get since the calculus is different for the flu) and while they are theoretically “required”, there is no mechanism for them to keep track of anything so when people don’t get vaccinated nothing ever comes of it. They might change things around due to pressure to do things for the Wuhan Flu, but at the same time they have so much pressure to rearrange everything every else that it’s likely that they’ll just lose track of the situation.

    Haven’t decided what I’ll do yet if it does come down to “take this vaccine or lose your job.”

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