I was ruminating on this for awhile.
I’m not an expert in any sense of the word. I’m bad at math. I’m not particularly knowledgeable in virology or epidemiology. And I don’t pretend to be.
But this is why, not my opinion specifically, but the opinions of people LIKE me are relevant.
Here’s the thing: I was originally a dyed-in-the-wool “Trump didn’t do enough, why isn’t the national guard enforcing lockdowns” guy. The first guy I saw who disputed this whole narrative was Dr. Briggs, a professional statistician, then Joseph Moore, a slightly less professional statistician.
On its own, that two credentialed people happened to disagree with an overwhelming narrative means pretty much nothing. I wasn’t a regular reader of Dr. Briggs before this, after all, just an occasional one.
What this experience did, though, was cause me to start doing a few things:
- Look at the numbers myself
- Actually try to understand the logic behind the people making all of the claims
- Try to understand what the models were saying
Do you see what I’m getting at?
Essentially, reading people who disagreed with the consensus didn’t convince me on its own, precisely. What it convinced me to do is not accept the “expert” consensus just because they’re experts, and not listen to people who told me I wasn’t smart or educated enough to understand things.
Because you know? It isn’t magic. It all involves real numbers and real events anyone can see. This is why I referred to Fauci’s model as the glaciers-melt-by-2020 model: Because you don’t NEED to be an expert to realize how ridiculous it was. It’s fair to say that only an expert could have possibly cooked that one up.
I’m not saying “It isn’t complicated”. I’m saying the reasons WHY it’s complicated aren’t hard to understand, and you don’t need a degree in epidemiology or statistics if you want to draw your own conclusions from what we’ve been told.
And if you still think what I’m saying is arrogant, consider this: None of the experts have at any point even been particularly close to right this entire time.
So what exactly do you have to lose by looking at things for yourself? What’s wrong with seeing what’s going on and drawing your own conclusion?
Because the conclusion I’ve come to is this: Trusting the experts on this issue was the wrong decision all along.
More discussion here – this one is a must-read.