The Global Warming Zone, Part 19: Getting to the bottom of things

Checklist time, boys and girls. Once again, I don’t have much new to add to the discussion, just sharing my thoughts. Maybe the organization will help you?

  1. So far I still don’t see any reason to think my read of the numbers is wrong: To get the number Fauci’s model was trying to predict, you need to subtract pneumonia comorbidities. I don’t see other people bringing this up but then it wasn’t exactly advertised. What does means, well…several things. But most prominently, the model is more wrong than we thought.
  2. The circular reason is maddening. People questioned it was overblown and criticized a lockdown. Now time has passed and uh oh, overall deaths ARE up! Something strange IS going on!

Is it because of the virus? Frankly at this point it’s getting more and more likely the answer is “probably not, overall”.

Is it the lockdowns? Well, as Dr. Briggs pointed out, we have very good evidence it’s killing people in the U.K. That seems grimly plausible. Maybe I’ll do U.S. ballpark math later.

Is it lies, damned lies, and statistics? Weeeeeeeelllllllll…

The overall flu season, taken in conjunction with all respiratory diseases, isn’t set to overtake the 2018 season. This leads me to believe excess deaths are due to two things:

1) Deaths being clumped into a couple of months. Unless there’s a wave 2 as severe as wave 1, and there probably won’t be since coronaviruses don’t really work like that, it’s most likely the “clumping” cools off from here.

2) Lockdowns kill people. We have strong evidence they do in England, which means strong circumstantial evidence it’s killing SOME people in the U.S.

3) I took a look at this article about alternative opinions on the coronavirus, and suggest you do too. I applaud the effort made here, but am still not overly impressed all told. It includes lines like this:

One under-discussed aspect is that the COVID symptoms are particularly severe, causing torment on levels that have left both survivors and health workers with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. The pandemic should perhaps be judged not only on the numbers of deaths, but also on the deeply detrimental effects.

PTSD? Huh? Extended family down in Florida got it. She said it was bad. She doesn’t have PTSD. In fact, no source is linked pointing to evidence of PTSD despite the rest of this article being rather impressively sourced.

Dying of a respiratory illness is a bad way to go. You tend to drown in your own phlegm as you literally hack your lungs to pieces. It ain’t pretty. Guess what? If your respiratory disease gets so bad you’re gonna die, it’s gonna look bad. If healthcare workers are getting PTSD out of it, well, I’m not gonna judge but where is this epidemic of shell-shocked veterans I’ve been promised?

We also get this:

Scales are inevitably hard to grasp when they get too big, but we might consider that if 280,000 people died as a result of a dramatic meteor strike, say, this would be seen as one of the worse tragedies of modern times. When that number die mostly out of sight, oddly we shrug. Knowing people who have died or lost loved ones brings the reality home, of course.

A pretty little piece of logic. Do dramatic meteor strikes that kill hundreds of thousands of people in one fell swoop routinely sweep through populations every year, like diseases do?

Or, even simpler, a thought experiment: What is the difference between a single person dying of a meteor strike and a single person dying of a disease at any given time?

Keep in mind: This “mere” 280,000 is only roughly 3,000 people higher than the 1957 flu killed, adjusted for population, in the United States alone. And we’re talking worldwide here. It’s a short page on the CDC website. Nobody remembers it or talks about. And America specifically did nothing about it.

Let’s take a look at the infamous Sweden.

It’s a few days old, but as far as I can see the deaths per million hasn’t shifted.

The question here is not, “Did more people die in Sweden than some people did in countries that had lockdowns for longer?” The answer is yes! Of course! Nor is the question “Did deaths go up after the lockdown was lifted?” Once again the answer is “Yes, duh.”

Rather, the REAL question is “Sweden better off overall with no lockdown?” I haven’t double checked but I’m willing to bet that compared to historical trends in pandemics they’re doing fine. And their citizens don’t seem to be complaining – isn’t that the real litmus here?

We also get this:

Hoax proponents consistently claim the death figures for 2020 are merely normal (or even less than normal) but this no longer stands scrutiny, whatever cause the fatalities are put down to. These claims are either a misunderstanding based on figures from before the pandemic properly took hold or a blatant misunderstanding of how the death numbers are compiled. Now that the deaths and tests are being recorded at least a little more accurately than they were even just two months ago, and because figures are in any case usually three weeks or so behind the real totals, statisticians point to the recent figures as showing a clear upwards trend of deaths that is far beyond normality. Indeed, some think the global figures may be twice or more what we know, with many non-hospital cases (care homes for instance, whose residents are being wiped out at alarming rates) only recently having been included. There is also a marked increase of deaths which are officially not COVID-related, as people fail to report symptoms of other conditions they would previously have gone to A&E for, afraid of burdening the system or catching the virus, and/or because other areas of health care have been detrimentally diverted into COVID measures.

First off, I don’t know why all of this is under “hoax proponents” when it should be under the “the response is overblown” label, but whatever. The corona death number has been shown to be nonsense – see the Dr. Briggs article above (by a guest writer). But more than that, it is the respiratory disease/flu season death number up to the latest week we should be looking at, to figure out if the flu/respiratory disease death number this year is any worse than 2018 up to the latest week.

News flash: 2018 is still worse. That’s a CDC link, by the way.

So much for that. Puts the kibosh on the whole thing, doesn’t it?

Except not really. Overall deaths do seem to be up…except we’ve had all of these lockdowns! What gives?

There aren’t a lot of possibilities. We’re back to:

  1. We are undercounting corona deaths. Literally all evidence points to the contrary at this point. Do I need to spell it out any more?
  2. Lockdowns kill people.

Remember: Flu season numbers simply are not enough to justify this panic. Now we have to look at worldwide total death numbers to figure it out.

Don’t worry. If you switch statistics around enough, you’re bound to hit on a scary number eventually.

Good news: The beaches are opening in NJ soon!

I’m sure churches are juuuuuuuuust around the corner.

 

 

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2 Responses to The Global Warming Zone, Part 19: Getting to the bottom of things

  1. Rudolph Harrier says:

    The USCCB hasn’t made any statements about reopening churches, but they did find time to condemn cononavirus related xenophobia. The xenophobia condemned includes:

    -An increase in bullying and physical assaults “particularly against Americans of Asian and Pacific Island heritage” which implies that these things are increasing across the board.
    -A drop in sales to businesses owned by Asians.
    -“Some” Asians working in the health sector had patients request to be treated “by someone else.”

    The only thing that is at all worrying in any of that is the accusation of increased physical assaults, but it is discussed in such a vague way that it’s impossible to investigate in more detail. The other problems are so laughably minor that it’s astonishing that bishops would make a statement about them.

    But separating nearly every Catholic in the country from the sacraments? Nah, not a big concern.

    • Of course, the Church already IS on the record as opposing unprovoked assaults on innocent people – pretty sure that one is covered in the Catechism – so there’s absolutely no reason for them to say anything at all on that topic.

      But it’s good to see they’re keeping a pulse on what the faithful need right now!

      That Jesus guy, he can wait. We’re too busy white knighting for Orientals.

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