Dr. Briggs has the numbers today. Actually, some of the links he gives I’m not impressed with – like the urgent care doctor’s video where they make estimates on death rates – but it’s becoming more and more undeniable that death rates are being spiked.
“But look at the overall death rates of the whole world and see how they’ve jumped!”
Mmmmmmm, yeah. When people are huddling in their homes terrified to go to the doctor, or else getting turned down for silly little non-essential things like biopsies, you get that.
(Not to mention, we’re back in “Emperor’s New Clothes” territory. Last article I saw was that cases were 60% higher than we thought. Does this sound even remotely, slightly plausible? To anyone? No?)
And worldwide, we’re going to end up, probably, with somewhere in the range of swine flu numbers.
“Swine flu did it over a year, this is three months! That makes a difference!”
It does make a difference, for one reason and one reason only: If it would overwhelm the hospitals.
But the hospitals aren’t CLOSE to being overwhelmed.
“But the only reason they aren’t is the lockdowns!”
This is why it’s called the global warming zone. We’re not hitting Fauci’s low numbers even WITH what is looking more and more like juiced numbers, and oh yeah, that was with perfect compliance, which as the media loves harping on is manifestly NOT happening.
Again – it’s not that our medical system is stretched thin, and we juuuuuuuuuuuust made it. It isn’t stretched at all. It’s contracting; doctors are being fired. So the time element is really not relevant.
Everybody is still, still trying to talk about how the reason it’s like this is because of all of the lockdowns and social distancing. Why do we think this? Because the epidemiologists say so.
The same epidemiologists who haven’t even been close to right.
“But cases are jumping where people are less strict!”
Let them jump. We’ve already looked at the historical perspective. They can jump quite a bit and historically still not be that bad.
The goal here is not “Less deaths than swine flu” or “As few deaths as possible”. The goal is “Not a worldwide disaster.” The reason I keep harping on the 1967 flu is that not only will it end up being worse, even the CDC doesn’t treat it like a big deal. There aren’t even any articles comparing that flu to this pandemic, which is actually kind of bizarre when you think about it.
We were never close to disaster from the kung flu. Sarah Hoyt thinks we pretty much have already caused one from the lockdown.
I disagree; it looks pretty likely things will start opening up sometime in May, in which case, we’ll probably do fine long term. And Trump will win easily anyway. As for people putting in lockdown restrictions again in September, well. we’ll see. That’s months away.
Look, I never thought we should do nothing about all of this. I was in total agreement with the initial one month lockdown. That was meant to monitor the situation and be clear on what was happening.
When it was over, what was happening was obvious: There was an epidemic in the metro area and a couple other cities and the rest of the country had a cold. So, Trump was discussing a county by county system, which was precisely the right plan…then Fauci came out with his insane models that said we were quadrupling the worldwide death totals in a month, with perfect compliance (which we didn’t get).
Once again, it was an Emperor’s new clothes scenario: The model was clearly ridiculous, the disease equivalent of “The glaciers will melt by 2020”. The correct thing to do was take that model, look at it in context with the rest of the data we had, and then use that county by county system. But Trump panicked and double downed for a month, and here we are.
There is another dirty secret here – This pandemic? It’s EXTREMELY localized. Like, extremely. It hits big in, say, the metro area – NYC ALONE has over 50% of the country’s cases, now add in Bergen County and the counties south – and practically not at all anywhere else. I’m an hour and a half from Bergen County, maybe 2 or a little less from the city, and my county STILL DOESN’T HAVE AN EPIDEMIC. There are counties even closer with no epidemic. It’s Lombardy all over again – we’re extrapolating from obviously specific circumstances and ruining people’s lives as a result.
And, as always, the final prediction: When the weather breaks, cases will drop like a rock, and we get to witness the delightful spectacle of government officials scrambling to take credit for it.
As always, wash your hands.