Well, it was bound to happen

I finally disagree with Trump.

So we’re shutting down the country at least month longer – which is not going to happen, it will be several months – and hopefully “by June” we will be well on the downswing. Not done. Well on the downswing. Or else…2.2 million deaths.

And maybe on the LOW end we will have 100,000 people dead! In the country! Oh no!

So in the United States, we are going to quadruple the entire worldwide death count. In a month. At best.

So we’re not quarantining the hotspots, the highest hit areas. Not opening up certain sections of the country instead of others. Not going county by county. The entire country is going to be shut down for a month.

So, let’s say we have a month of this and things slow down. Just slowing down, not stop. So in May we will also be down. And in June certain areas, but not others will be open. NJ and NYC and Louisiana will certainly be down. Of course, this is assuming people don’t “want to be careful” and just close down for the rest of the year, which I suspect will be the real solution.

Remember what’s actually going here.

But, congrats, gloom and doomers, you got your wish. Let’s compare the number of jobs lost, businesses ended, and opportunities vanished and see if our death tolls match the lower end of this estimate.

If we reach the lower end, nobody should vote for Trump. You should abstain. This would be a tremendous failure.

But don’t worry. If deaths don’t hit that amount – it’s going to be the social distancing that caused it.

I’m now worried, folks. But not about the virus.

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4 Responses to Well, it was bound to happen

  1. Joseph Moore says:

    Just checked daily new deaths in Italy, France, and Spain: all have fallen over the last few days; In the US, just turned the corner – daily new deaths today were about half of yesterday’s.

    100K? We may not hit 10K. As inflated as death numbers are, they’re more telling than cases,. which are a mere function of testing (or hallucination). The evidence point to wildly overstated basic parameters: it’s NOT super-infectious; it’s NOT super deadly, and far less than 100% of the population is even susceptible to it. If you drop the R0 from 2.5 to something more like 1.5. drop the fatality rate to something reality based like .02% instead of using he idiotic case death rate of 4.5% as if that’s the real death rate *if infected* rather than a function of testing and hysteria, and then note that only 18% of the Diamond Princess crowd actually caught the disease even under near perfect transmission conditions, and – you end up with under 100K dead even if you use the publish epidemic model that cranks out 11M dead under the crazy assumptions.

    And yet, we panic. By ‘we’ I mean people foolish enough to believe what gets reported.

    In saner times, a LOT of public officials and reporters would be lined up against the wall for ginning up this fiasco.

    • Apparently Trump was convinced, aupposedly, by Arms-of-the-Angels images in NYC.

      So to be clear, I not only think this is a bad decision, I think it is a terrible one that drops my grade of his handling of this from A+ to B- (I can’t overlook how well he’s done to now entirely).

      People really need to stop and think about what 100,000 deaths would actually mean – how horrendous it would have to get. It’s simply not happening.

    • Frankly, I have absolutely no clue when this will ever end. I don’t know if it will; it’s impossible to predict because none of what’s going on is rational, so how do you figure out a rational end point?

      So it’s possible a new society where most people stay home and remote jobs and retail workers carry the economy becomes life. Who knows? How can you possibly tell at this point?

    • I had a head cold earlier this week that was entirely gone by day 3. My throat was mildly scratchy.

      I wonder if that was the virus? Maybe. Hopefully I won’t find out.

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